Notre Dame can beat USC, but can Gators cover? October 16, 2009
Posted by Vince Mullins in Football, sports betting.Tags: college football, florida gators, notre dame
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guest post by Mickey the Piker
Can Jimmy Clausen pull out another close one versus the Trojans? (CNN)
The big story this weekend will be NOTRE DAME. That’s right friends…. After this weekend, Lou Holtz will look like a genius for his Notre Dame “in the championship game” pick!
Whether you love the Irish or loathe them, I think they are going to pull the SHOCKER this week and not only COVER the 11.5-point spread (that’s where I got in….) but WIN THE GAME.
I know, I know…. It’s hard to believe that the Vegas books would be THIS WRONG on any game and EVERY LOGICAL REASON seems to point to SoCal – big game experience, crushed the Irish last year, Charlie Weis has never beaten Pete Carrol, SoCal’s defense, et al.
However, IMO, the Irish have two significant advantages in this game - Jimmy Clausen and Touchdown Jesus. Barring a re-aggravated injury, I believe that Clausen will be the difference-maker and, as importantly, I think home-field advantage tilts this game to the Irish.
I won’t be surprised when Notre Dame struggles initially with SoCal’s defense. However, I think Charlie has learned a couple of things over the past few seasons which will help the Irish STAY PATIENT. I think the Irish D feeds off the home crowd and plays with a lot of energy and determination. I think the Irish NEED THIS GAME MORE than the Trojans; and I think that ultimately shows up in the scoreboard. I think the score mirrors the Washington game – it just depends on which Washington game we’re talking about since the Huskies played both ND and SC!
In a defensive struggle (a la SoCal v. Washington), I like the Irish 17-13. In more of a shoot-out (a la Washington v. Notre Dame), I like the Irish 27-24. In any case, Notre Dame COVERS and WINS.
After picking the Mighty Gators to cover last week on the road in BAATON ROOOUUUUGE, I have to take the points (25) and the Hogs this week. Yes, I know what Bama did to Arkie but I think the Hogs are playing with more confidence after taking two teams (Texas A&M and Auburn) to the woodshed in consecutive weeks.
Each week is different but I think Arkie has enough offense AND Florida is struggling too much offensively for this to be a blow-out. While I love Florida’s secondary and I hope they ballhawk Mallet and get 5+ picks, I am VERY concerned about the Florida front seven against this spread attack. Florida just isn’t getting enough pressure up-front for me to feel comfortable about this number-one ranked defense yet.
Stating the obvious, Ryan Mallet will be the key for the Hogs to keep this game close. I think he does better than he did against Bama. People forget… This guy is still learning and hasn’t actually PLAYED a lot of football. He impressed me the past two weeks against good athletic teams in Auburn and A&M. And, I agree with Meyer – Arkie is waaaay better than the Ole Miss team that beat Florida last year (and that’s bad news Gators because this Florida team ISN’T AS GOOD as the ‘08 version).
As long as Florida has Tim Tebow, I don’t think Arkie pulls the upset. However, I do think they cover and keep it closer than the Gator Nation – myself included! – will like. In what will be the formula for Gator wins all season, Florida 23 Arkie 14. Until proven otherwise, the magic number for the Gator offense is 28. If they get 28 in the first quarter (a la Kentucky), all the better….. If they don’t ever get to 28 (see Tennessee and LSU), it’s too close for comfort….
Enjoy your weekend!
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