jump to navigation

Notre Dame can beat USC, but can Gators cover? October 16, 2009

Posted by Vince Mullins in Football, sports betting.
Tags: , ,
add a comment
guest post by Mickey the Piker
Can Jimmy Clausen pull out another close one versus the Trojans? (CNN)

Can Jimmy Clausen pull out another close one versus the Trojans? (CNN)

The big story this weekend will be NOTRE DAME.  That’s right friends…. After this weekend, Lou Holtz will look like a genius for his Notre Dame “in the championship game” pick!
Whether you love the Irish or loathe them, I think they are going to pull the SHOCKER this week and not only COVER the 11.5-point spread (that’s where I got in….) but WIN THE GAME.
I know, I know…. It’s hard to believe that the Vegas books would be THIS WRONG on any game and EVERY LOGICAL REASON seems to point to SoCal – big game experience, crushed the Irish last year, Charlie Weis has never beaten Pete Carrol, SoCal’s defense, et al.
However, IMO, the Irish have two significant advantages in this game - Jimmy Clausen and Touchdown Jesus.  Barring a re-aggravated injury, I believe that Clausen will be the difference-maker and, as importantly, I think home-field advantage tilts this game to the Irish.
I won’t be surprised when Notre Dame struggles initially with SoCal’s defense.  However, I think Charlie has learned a couple of things over the past few seasons which will help the Irish STAY PATIENT.  I think the Irish D feeds off the home crowd and plays with a lot of energy and determination.  I think the Irish NEED THIS GAME MORE than the Trojans; and I think that ultimately shows up in the scoreboard.  I think the score mirrors the Washington game – it just depends on which Washington game we’re talking about since the Huskies played both ND and SC!
In a defensive struggle (a la SoCal v. Washington), I like the Irish 17-13.  In more of a shoot-out (a la Washington v. Notre Dame), I like the Irish 27-24.  In any case, Notre Dame COVERS and WINS.
(more…)

Home Dog Alert! Oregon State +1 hosts Cincinnati September 19, 2009

Posted by Vince Mullins in Football, sports betting, sports investing.
Tags:
1 comment so far
Anne Hathaway's hotness will sneak up on you, and so could the Beavers as home dog.

Anne Hathaway's hotness will sneak up on you, and so could the Beavers as home dog.

So many people I trust like the Oregon State Beavers at home against the vicious offense of the Cincinnati Bearcats.

FootballJesus - Beavers are the pick and this guy is particularly sharp on Pac 10.

Phil Steele – Beavers by 4

While both teams are young (10 and 9 ret starters), UC is making the odd trip to the Pacific NW (lost L/6 vs non-conference BCS teams by an avg of 21 ppg on the road) and probably won’t be prepared for the crowd volume of Reser Stadium. Oregon St usually struggles early in the year, especially their first road game but by the 2nd home game of the season they have it figured out and have won that game by an average of 39-14 (last 4) including wins over USC and Boise St!


Beavers are replacing the entire secondary and that seems like a huge challenge versus Tony Pike and Mardy Gilyard, but two things I immediately search for every week are (1) home dogs and (2) long trips. College kids especially those at the mid-cap programs just do not travel well. Hell, LSU didn’t travel well to Washington in Week One.

Get your two units on Oregon State +1.5, interestingly there is no moneyline here either.

Toledo to cover vs. Ohio State? September 19, 2009

Posted by Vince Mullins in Football.
Tags: ,
add a comment

 

Speaking of Rockets...breasts are great, but Denise Milani possesses so much more.

Speaking of Rockets...breasts are great, but Denise Milani possesses so much more.

Images dance in your mind based on the glorious history of the Ohio State Buckeyes, so you perish the thought of the MAC BCS-buster Toledo Rockets staying close with the hallowed Scarlet and Gray.

Let me list the ways that this 22 point line could be way off.

 

  1. Toledo isnt sneaking up on anyone – they just had the national stage last Friday Night in crushing Colorado. So it is quite likely that the Rockets are fairly to OVERVALUED on the line.
  2. Ohio State is likely overvalued after playing USC closely in the Horseshoe, in fact the Buckos should have won.
  3. 22 is more than a three TD cushion, so a 42-21 tOSU win is NOT a cover.
  4. Navy passed well against Ohio State in the opener (esp. in 2-min drill), and USC chose to run over the Buckeyes last week. Toledo is a well-balanced offense in their 1-1 start and Aaron Opelt is as hot as any QB in the nation throwing to 4-yr starter WR Stephen Williams, freshman sensation Eric Page and Cris Carter cousin Kenny Stafford.
  5. This game is in Cleveland Browns Stadium, not in the Horseshoe.

Sportsbook.com does not have a moneyline, so 2 units on the Rockets +21 or better.

College Football Home Dog Upsets to watch – San Jose over Utah? September 12, 2009

Posted by Vince Mullins in Football, sports betting.
Tags:
add a comment

 

Bianca Beauchamp on Bikini Saturday (She is into leather)

Bianca Beauchamp on Bikini Saturday (She is into leather)

San Jose State likely didnt show everything for the USC game, Tomey is a sharp coach and should have had his players focused for the home opener against a young Utah team with a freshman QB.

 

Plus, I like the value of the +450 and all those points. I bought in to the Phil Steele pitch and used the “Huss Hedge”.

2 Units on SJSU +14 and 1 unit on moneyline +450!

College Football Home Dogs to watch – Ohio State over USC September 12, 2009

Posted by Vince Mullins in Football, sports betting.
Tags: ,
add a comment
Catalina Cruz in game colors

Catalina Cruz in game colors

USC is more talented – I give you that. But TD dog in the Horseshoe where they are 46-1 in non-conference games? Value with Buckeyes.

 

The Trojans are young and freshman stud QB Matt Barkley plays on the road for the first time. Joe McKnight and the rest of the RBs are the focus of the offense, but Buckeyes run D worked fine last week – it was their pass defense that Navy got the big plays. Can Barkley handle the pressure with 100k booing him? I just doubt it even if he is the Third Coming (Tebow being the second…).

I also think there is value in tOSU based on last week’s results – Navy always confuses their opponent with their three-card monte of an offense and Buckeyes had to have spent some of their Week One prep on SoCal rather than the Middies. Trojans embarrassed the Spartans (Peloponnesian War?) and this line has moved from an open of 4.5 to 7.

I suggest the “Huss Hedge” – 2 units ATS, 1 unit moneyline +240

LOCK OF THE WEEK – Under 40 South Carolina-Georgia September 12, 2009

Posted by Vince Mullins in Football, sports betting.
Tags: , ,
add a comment
White Bikini Saturday

White Bikini Saturday

Last five matchups avg 27 ppg. Enough said but let me develop why this one that might look like a soccer match.

 Gamecocks have only allowed one TD in the last two games against Georgia, and that was with Stafford and Moreno. But the offense still looked pedestrian against a decent NC State defense.

UGA QB may have missed the game with flu but is now probable – not that it would have mattered as the offense looked like RB Richard Samuels and ten other guys (bad QB even made AJ Green look average) Add in OT Sturdivant injury and Bulldogs will continue to struggle.

40 was the number on Sportsbook Friday.

College Football Parlay Pick: Tulsa, Oklahoma, and Rice October 31, 2008

Posted by Vince Mullins in Football, sports betting, sports investing.
Tags: ,
2 comments
Denise Milani's special version of the Heisman pose.

Denise Milani

I have had some luck with parlays lately, pick three and get a 6-1 payoff? NICE!

Last weekend I hit the night games with Oregon, Notre Dame and Alabama (really nothing more than betting against ASU, Washington and Tennessee) but this week I want you group together our top 3 favorites.

Tulsa -7 at Arkansas

Yes, that is little bitty Tulsa venturing into an SEC stadium as the favorite. Believe it. You have the nation’s elite offense facing up against the nation’s 106th rated Razorback defense. It really doesn’t matter that Casey Dick and the Hogs crushed some small schools in the beginning of the year, the Golden hurricane is something completely different.

The other two legs of the parlay after the jump. (more…)

Week Five NCAAF Sides from the supercomputer… September 26, 2008

Posted by Vince Mullins in Football, sports betting, sports investing.
Tags:
add a comment
Stephanie Glasson

Stephanie Glasson

Matt ran the big numbers again, here are the sides to watch given his highly mathematical and objective algorithmic projections.

Clemson -11 over Maryland – no cross country trip for a Terrapin opponent this week (Cal upset). After the Alabama beatdown in Week One, Clemson recommitted to the ground game and looks much more like an ACC champ.

OhioSt -19.5 over Minnesota – Minnesota defense is in my top quartile, but they haven’t seen a force like Tyrelle Pryor and a healthy Beanie Wells.

New Mexico St +130 and +3 over New Mexico - using the Huss Hedge is recommended here. The Aggies are a bit of an unknown since they have only played twice, and this is where the quantitative strategies that Matt employs become super-useful. NM State was a +210 “gut-shot” winner for me last week at UTEP, this weekend they host an in-state rival who is overvalued with a win over Pac 10 contender (isn’t everyone?) Arizona.
(more…)