Sometimes there are seven games on my radar, and sometimes there are only two that make the cut to play in college football. Once the calendar turns to November, more information on each team levels the playing field that I normally get to exploit in September and October. Hence, usually fewer games until the bowls come around.
If there is one team that might yet to be appreciated given its new construction, it could be the Michigan Wolverines with Devin Gardner at QB and Denard Robinson at RB – that is two very elite weapons in one backfield and there is not a lot of tape on it for the Ohio State Buckeyes. Michigan is a 4-point dog and a +155 ML, but neither team fit my “reversal” or “hidden gem” screen.
But, this week, only the Florida State Seminoles and the UCLA Bruins emerge from my screen to your picks.
PLAY FLORIDA STATE -7 at home against the Florida Gators, 2-unit bet
Early October, the Seminoles screwed the pooch for about an hour and lost to NC State on the road, an ignominious defeat that rendered them helpless against voters and computers alike to claim the #1 spot in the BCS. Other than that, against often flaccid competition, they have done exactly what dominant teams do and that is dominate. The Seminoles possess the rare #1 ranking nationally in yards per play gained and allowed.
In waltz the early-season-Blue-Horseshoe-loving-alumnus-claiming Florida Gators, whose sterling defense and special team saved them from multiple ignominious defeats to the likes of Louisiana-Lafayette and Jacksonville State. The offense get QB Jeff Driskell back, but I am ot sure how that helps against a defense of this calibre on their home field when the can’t score on the Ragin’ Cajuns.
Here is a scary stat of the Will Muschamp reign – 0-7 ATS last two years in November, and take it back another turn of the sun to get the Gators 5-14 ATS L3Y vs against ANY WINNING TEAM.
Gator fans, of which I am one, need to prepare for another year of Seminole Pride. Thanks to Sportsbook.com and Phil Steele for the stats.
PLAY UCLA +3 and +125 ML hosting Stanford
I love playing home dogs, especially when they come off convincing defeats of their biggest rivals and still the markets question just how good they are. UCLA fits that mold off a convincing defeat of the USC Trojans last week in bad weather. Now, Stanford held the Oregon Ducks in check for a 17-14 OT win, but to me the Cardinal freshman QB Kevin Hogan‘s heroics were missing but were de-emphasized by that fantastic Stanford front seven.
A quick peek of the schedule shows that this is Stanford’s fifth roadie in the last seven games, and for the same reasons I questioned Hogan on the road as a big dog, I really question him on the road in a bigger stadium as a favorite.
- Tuck: Gators-Seminoles Matters Again (sportstalkflorida.com)
- Seminoles kicker Dustin Hopkins nears NCAA all-time scoring record (miamiherald.com)