Our NFL Draft 2018 My Mock Draft

Vince and Brett perform their annual exercise of alternating picks in the NFL Draft, trading each other for the Buccaneers and Dolphins picks, then settling from there.

This is NOT a mock draft of what we expect the NFL teams to do, it is how we would pick it.

#	Team	GM	My not Mock	Notes
1	Browns	V	Bradley Chubb	As long as it isn’t Josh Allen, I will not cry. I think Chubb is best prospect
2	Giants	B	Saquan Barkley	Giants need a running game. STAT. will grab QB in 2nd (Rudolph?)
3	Jets	B	Baker Mayfield	The Jets moved up for a reason. Mayfield predicted this…
4	Browns	V	Lamar Jackson	OL a big need, but in my fever dream, the Browns planned ahead with Tyrod Taylor to hold down the QB spot while electric Lamar take the reins sooner rather than later.
5	Broncos	V	Josh Rosen	In the My draft, they go SoCal QB, just like Elway. Groom behind Keenum
6	Colts	B	Quenton Nelson	Colts need help on both sides of the ball… but Q Dog is just too good to pass up
7	Buccaneers	V	Derwin James	Bucs getting mocked for Minkah a lot,I don’t see it over James. Fan and team need align to create a damn good set of defensive players!
8	Bears	B	Denzel Ward	#1 corner in draft. Aaron Rodgers…heard of him???
9	49ers	V	Roquan Smith	was a need anyway, now with Ruben Foster going to jail most likely, 49ers get a true character guy with high IQ. I bet they would love Q here if available.
10	Raiders	B	Vita Vea	Dominant Dlineman who can change the entire Raider defense…
11	Dolphins	B	Tremaine Edmunds	Social Media wants a QB. They need defense. The dolphins simply need a LB. Edmunds can do it all..including cover Gronk
12	Bills	B	Sam Darnold	Thanks Dolphins. We will take #1 QB at 12
13	Washington	V	Daron Payne	Most mocks have Vea or Edmunds. Payne next best for biggest need
14	Packers	B	Minkah Fitzpatrick	Packers need to shore up their pass defense. Minkah is All-Pro Level in secondary
15	Cardinals	V	Calvin Ridley	I don’t mind Josh Allen here, but WR2 bigger need
16	Ravens	B	M. McGlinchey	Ravens need to revamp oline and get back to controlling line of scrimmage.
17	Chargers	V	Leighton Vander Esch	As an investor in the Chargers, bolstering 2d level behind a fearsome line should be enough to get Chargers to playoffs.
18	Seahawks	B	Jaire Alexander	Sherman is gone. Cam is gone. Boom is gone. Need to rebuild that back end.
19	Cowboys	V	Taven Bryan	Any help on D is appreciated… But adding an athletic DT with room to grow is a great Jones type pick. Edge rushers less value early
20	Lions	B	Maurice Hurst	Need a RB…round 2. But Hurst has a chance to be special on that DLine. Lions decline Dolphins trade involving 2020 1st round pick for rights to Hurst
21	Bengals	V	Will Hernandez	OL a huge need, there are better prospects but super fit
22	Bills	B	Harold Landry	Bills get their potential star DE in Landry. Their defense disappointed in 2017. This is a start…
23	Patriots	V	Marcus Davenport	Seal the edge with a solid prospect they can grow physically and mentally after small school career.
24	Panthers	V	Mike Hughes	Cb with length and speed… I bet Patriots would be tempted by Mike if stay at 23
25	Titans	V	James Washington	WR superproductive and athletic, good physical complement to Corey Davis
26	Falcons	B	Isiah Wynn	Will play guard in the nfl…but is second best OL in this draft…
27	Saints	V	Dallas Goedert	Saints loaded sobcan afford to be contrarian. the Y TE Goedert should be valued higher than H type like Gesicki
28	Steelers	B	Rashaad Evans	Injuries, retirement, inconsistent play… Steelers are in the market for a difference maker at LB. I think he is a pro bowl level player down the road.
29	Jaguars	V	DJ Moore	Like Chargers and Saints, not many needs. Probably OK at WR, but get a great specimen here.
30	Vikings	B	James Daniels	Vikings are stacked. A mauler of a guard will help Dalvin Cook lead NFC in rushing in 2018
31	Patriots	V	Josh Jackson	Need CB immediately. Almost went Mason Rudolph here
32	Eagles	B	Connor Williams	Eagles have a 35 year old LT returning from a major injury. Need to get younger on OL
				Closing Comments:
				Thanks Vince! Really intrigued by pick #4…L Jax is gaining some steam. No Josh Allen…hmmmmm.
				Thank you Brett! If one believes that college production is one’s NFL ceiling, Josh Allen is Brock Osweiler.
				Browns control this thing. Close second is the team that panic trades up for a QB in R1. Suspects BUF, AZ, MIA.
				Dolphins will trade down before they trade up!

 

NCAA Baseball Regional Recap for speculators

First, a quick review of my portfolio for the Field of 64 in College Baseball. Net lost money, but a couple of the high leverage bets were thisclose. The Power Rank and the Pythagorean Expected Wins continue to uncover value.

Bearkats moving on!

TO WIN REGION:

Risk Capital Only

Tennessee Tech to win Tallahassee Regional – FAIL – SO CLOSE, as the nation’s leading OPS put a scare in all the teams with poor pitching. Beat Florida State early, but fell to the Seminoles in the loser bracket final.

Min bets (5% of capital or one unit) –

UIC +1200 to win Hattiesburg – FAIL – again, the power ranks 20v gave us a real shot. Flames kept fighting back, lost twice by one run.

Dallas Baptist +350 to win FW – FAIL, as DBU 28v hit a ton of home runs in a pitcher park, but got barbecued and smoked slowly in the final as they ran out of arms by hosts TCU. Fading TCU did not pay off.

Sam Houston St +300 to win Lubbock – WIN! –  8v power rank was clear enough for these odds to pay with two wins over the host Texas Tech.  Got pitching from the entire staff, almost a starter-less approach. On to the super regionals for the first time in program history.

Full Bets (5-10%) of capital –

Virginia +150 to win FW – FAIL – many thought the Wahoos 15v would have an edge after failing to get their own regional. Nope. Fading TCU did not pay off.

Vanderbilt +130 to win Clemson – WIN – Tigers fail to advance again as hosts,  Commodores at 21v were due to get some good luck, but did lose one to Clemson, yet all worked out with a shutout and advance to the Supers. Keep an eye on the Dores to go to Omaha.

USF +250 to win Gainesville – FAIL – this was so close, as in a winners bracket game that got to extra innings, the Bulls 11v screwed the pooch on a pick off play that allowed the Gator runner to score from first, and you could feel the gas just leak from the tank. They proceeded to get crushed by Bethune Cookman shortly after. Looking back, given their outperformance of expected wins, this should have been a min bet so chalk that one up to experience.

2017 NCAA Baseball Regional Tournament Preview – for speculators and fans alike

I love the college baseball so much more than the pro game – might have something to do with marrying into an Oklahoma State family that has had season tickets at Allie P Reynolds Stadium since it was built, but at least equally it is an undiscovered country of statistics and sport investing.

Thanks, NY Daily News

My favorite example – sabrmetrics clearly show in the pro game that it is rarely a good idea to bunt. In the college game, a strong short game takes advantage of less skilled fielders that have less practice time. I used to think the metal bat was enough of a variable to let the kids swing, but I have seen so many Three Stooges bunt defense bits in person I am now a believer.

To the 2017 NCAA Baseball Regional Tournament Preview! Formatted for bettors, odds from Sportsbook.ag. (XXv) is my equal weighted ranking of  OPS and ERA of all 295 NCAA Division 1 teams.

2016 Final NCAA Baseball and Pythagorean Luckiness for the Regional tournaments

As I am now obsessed with applying the discoveries of early Greek mathematicians, here is my look at the Luckiest and Unluckiest teams.

Hopefully, UNC’s lack of luck will not keep them from the NCAA Baseball Tournament in 2016.

“Pyth Exp W” is the number of wins one should expect from the Run Differential, Variance then shows how many wins more than expected were booked. A lot of potential tourney teams in the Luckiest list (due to underperform in playoffs)…[and please excuse the formatting? If you would like the entire file a/o May 23, let me know @vinsane38 on twitter)

Pythagorean Expected Wins might work for college football too

Inspired by reading Joe Peta’s Trading Bases recently (how did I miss this book in 2013?), I applied the original Bill James Pythagorean Expectation formula for expected wins to 2015 college football season (why didn’t I do this back in 2005!!!)

Suffice it to say, it reminded me how lucky a lot of good teams were, but for the first time shined a light on how unlucky some very good squads were last year.

First, I kept this as simple as I could – I stuck with the squares rather than adjusting the exponent in the original.

W% = PScored²/(PScored² + PAllowed²) and Expected Wins = (G)(W%)

I calculated P for both total points, and also total TDs – I didnt see much difference in the results.

Also, since college teams played anywhere from 12 to 15 games last season, I rounded the assumption to an expected win as 0.7% of a season (or, assume 14.28 games)

Here are the teams with 12+ wins in 2015, and how lucky they were.

Team 2015	G	W	Exp W Pt	Exp W TD	Variance W Pt
Alabama	15	14	12.64	12.93	1.36
Clemson	15	14	11.39	11.25	2.61
Houston	14	13	11.09	11.38	1.91
Ohio State	13	12	11.03	11.31	0.97
Western Kentucky	14	12	10.43	10.43	1.57
Stanford	14	12	10.32	10.94	1.68
Iowa	14	12	9.77	10.55	2.23
Michigan State	14	12	9.14	9.32	2.86

Here are all the teams with 2 wins or less, and how unlucky they were:

Team 2015	G	W	Exp W P	Exp W T	Var W Pt
UCF	12	0	1.44	1.09	-1.44
Kansas	12	0	1.18	1.20	-1.18
Eastern Michigan	12	1	3.21	2.97	-2.21
North Texas	12	1	1.43	1.20	-0.43
Army	12	2	4.64	5.20	-2.64
Purdue	12	2	3.85	4.09	-1.85
SMU	12	2	3.24	3.07	-1.24
Louisiana-Monroe	13	2	3.23	3.22	-1.23
Wyoming	12	2	2.86	3.21	-0.86
Oregon State	12	2	2.50	2.33	-0.50
Charlotte	12	2	2.27	1.92	-0.27

Pretty consistent that all of these teams above got to their extreme results but out-performing or underperforming their expected wins given the points on the scoreboard.

Of more interest to me, and projecting 2016 results, is looking at which team experienced the most luck. Sports investors should expect “mean variance” for the following teams, and should also factor in roster changes.

2016 NFL Mock Draft by text

Brett  14:42

Mock draft. Me and you. You get odds. I get evens. You are on the clock…

Me   15:01

Is it who I would pick, or projecting the pick?

 

Brett 15:03

Who you would pick if GM of that team…

 

Me   15:25

  1)Rams select QB Jared Goff for immediate play

 

Brett    16:19

    2) Eagles select QB Carson Wentz for immediate sitting for a year

 

Brett    16:20

But I would not have made that trade..

 

Me    17:10

   3) Chargers take best in draft, LT Laremy Tunsil

 

Brett    17:13

2nd best…

  4) Cowboys select S/CB Jalen Ramsey

 

Me    17:14

Fair point, it was hard to pass on Ramsey but SD deeper need.

 

Me    17:15

  5) Jags jag off that Edge Joey Bosa OSU is there at 5 and they need not sweat Myles Jack knee

 

Brett    17:16

Bosa at 5…nice

 

Brett    17:18

  6) Ravens select DE Deforrest Buckner Oregon

 

Me    17:18

The Ravens would be all over Zeke IMO. Their best back just filed for Medicare benefits

 

Brett    17:19

Nah. Need DL help

 

Me    17:20

7) 49ers grab OT Ronnie Stanley ND to help Chips new O

 

Brett    17:21

The commissioner announced a trade! I just traded Browns pick to Dolphins at 13 and receive pick 73 as well.

8) Dolphins select RB Ezekiel Elliot

 

Me    17:21

I will trade you the Dolphins for the Titans

 

Me    17:21

Nevermind! Not sure Fins had to do that, Bucs were not taking a RB. And Browns have weird backs along with a weird offense anyway.

 

Brett    17:24

Tannebaum is known to trade up in drafts.  Word out of Miami and Omar Kelly is that they are smitten on Elliot. Fear the Bears and Giants taking him at 10, 11 respectively.

Me    17:24

9) Bucs lost voluntary muscle control, recover, clean up and select LB Myles Jack. Boom.

 

Brett    17:25

Uggghhhhh….love him

 

Me    17:26

Lavonte David – Jack – Kwon Alexander…<3 . Might be best LB group since the mid-90s Saints!

 

Brett    17:27

10) Giants select CB Vernon Hargreaves. They need so much DB help.

 

Me    17:30

I know nothing out Bear needs, but I will always bias to lineman.

11) Bears select DE Shaq Lawson

 

Brett    17:31

12) Saints select OLB Leonard Floyd Georgia. So good on a bad D at UGA. Saints need D. Make it happen.

 

Me    17:35

13) I feel very comfy with getting an extra pick with Cleveland. Brownies Quant nerds want Robert Nkemdiche here, but wary of off field issues. Take him any way. 4th best in draft at 13, they sprint faster than Josh Gordon to the desk.

 

Brett    17:37

Hmmmmmm. Wow. Lol

 

Brett    17:38

14) Raiders go D w ILB Reggie Ragland Alabama

 

Me    17:39

Feeling me tho? Brownies trade down twice, still get my 4 on big board

 

Me    17:41

I love Titans trading and value, they need everything.

15) Titans select OT Jack Conklin Sparta

 

Brett    17:41

Nice pick. Thought of him at 10! Yeah and they have a lot of picks left!!

 

Brett    17:43

16)…a lot of talent left…Lions select OLB Darron Lee  Buckeyes

 

Me    17:49

Falcons D is bad, but they fail at protecting Matty Ice.

17) OT Taylor Decker tOSU

 

Brett    17:51

18) Colts take DT Sheldon Rankins Louisville because the D is among the worst in NFL.

 

Me    17:53

Sweet at 18 B-)

 

Me    17:56

Bills Coach Rex knows how to party, needs pass rush.

19) DE Noah Spence EKU through tOSU

 

Brett    17:56

Todd Bowles says F you Rex…

 

Me    17:57

Get in line, says Rex

 

Brett    17:57

Lol! Was gonna take Spence…

 

Brett    17:58

Screw it..20) Jets select TE Hunter Henry Arkansas

 

Me    17:59

Wow. He is best TE, and Jets usually blow it, so…

 

Me    18:00

Skins need real WR to complement elite TE Jordan Reed…

21) Redskins select WR Laquon Treadwell Ole Miss

 

Brett    18:02

Speaking of complements..

22) Texans take WR William Fuller ND

 

Me    18:02

He fits better with Hopkins. Those cats may look Osweiler look good.

 

Me    18:03

So 23) Vikings grab WR Josh Doctson TCU who gets to keep his purple gear. Doctson is Dez like, not as fast

 

Brett    18:03

Agreed and agreed

 

Brett    18:05

You effin did it again! 24) Bengals select WR Corey Coleman Baylor

 

Me    18:06

Gotta be record wr run

 

Brett    18:07

Yep. I noticed. I wanted Doctson for the Bengals, but still like Coleman opposite AJ Green to fill in all the free agency losses.

 

Me    18:08

Steelers D may have been worst vs pass.

25) CB MacKenzie Alexander Clemson

 

Brett    18:09

Might be a hair early..26) Seahawks select OL Cody Whitehair. It’s a big need

 

Me    18:11

So I will pick “my guy” for the first time today…

Best fit for remaining r1…

27) Packers select DT Leonard Butler LA Tech. I watched a lot of Tech (Dixon and Driskell), this kid was damn near unstoppable

 

Brett    18:12

Yeah. Looking at him for KC..

28) Chiefs select DT Jarran Reed from “Let down Alabama”

 

Me    18:12

Did u do the “hair early” on purpose at 26?

 

Brett    18:13

Yep

 

Me    18:14

Cards have few needs, right? So BPA is 29) Cardinals select Clemson DE Kevin Dodd. U get a fun one now

 

Brett    18:14

Nice upside on Dodd…

 

Brett    18:15

Bye bye Norman…30) Panthers – hello CB William Jackson III Houston

 

Me    18:16

31) Broncos “pick and play” QB Paxton Lynch (/drops phone mic)

 

Brett    18:16

Lol..wow… Just wow

 

Me    18:17

Serious pick there, not entertainment purposes only. Broncos do that, or grab C Ryan kelly Alabama then wait til Saturday to pick Brandon Allen Arkansas

 

College Football Totals Week 7 – over options

Quick post, but scanned the list today that has two bad defenses and decent QB play (or better)..lines from Sportsbook.ag.

OVER 79 Tulsa at East Carolina

Daily fantasy analysts are all over this game, and I think it remains undervalued. Keyarris Garrett may have an historic day – 6’6″ WR built like a superhero, at least 4 inches on all DB.

OVER 66 Akron at Bowling Green

BG has been on the list often, but intriguing here is College Football Focus efficiency favorites of Akron QB Thomas Woodson and RB Conner Hundley

OVER 72 TCU at Iowa State

TCU struggles on road, and that helps this Over bet. Iowa State found a nice RB talent in Mike Warren and is loaded at WR prospects, if QB Sam Richardson can solve TCU D this might be 42-35 at the end of 3q.

ESPN Chalk:: Falica and Stanford Steve on CFP Week 7

http://espn.go.com/chalk/story/_/id/13887069/college-football-chris-fallica-stanford-steve-pick-week-7-games-including-michigan-state-michigan

Fallica is on board with me on ASU +7 but for different reasons.

They both love Louisville getting a TD at Tally, and both digging Florida as a DDD at LSU.