2016 NFL Mock Draft by text

Brett  14:42

Mock draft. Me and you. You get odds. I get evens. You are on the clock…

Me   15:01

Is it who I would pick, or projecting the pick?

 

Brett 15:03

Who you would pick if GM of that team…

 

Me   15:25

  1)Rams select QB Jared Goff for immediate play

 

Brett    16:19

    2) Eagles select QB Carson Wentz for immediate sitting for a year

 

Brett    16:20

But I would not have made that trade..

 

Me    17:10

   3) Chargers take best in draft, LT Laremy Tunsil

 

Brett    17:13

2nd best…

  4) Cowboys select S/CB Jalen Ramsey

 

Me    17:14

Fair point, it was hard to pass on Ramsey but SD deeper need.

 

Me    17:15

  5) Jags jag off that Edge Joey Bosa OSU is there at 5 and they need not sweat Myles Jack knee

 

Brett    17:16

Bosa at 5…nice

 

Brett    17:18

  6) Ravens select DE Deforrest Buckner Oregon

 

Me    17:18

The Ravens would be all over Zeke IMO. Their best back just filed for Medicare benefits

 

Brett    17:19

Nah. Need DL help

 

Me    17:20

7) 49ers grab OT Ronnie Stanley ND to help Chips new O

 

Brett    17:21

The commissioner announced a trade! I just traded Browns pick to Dolphins at 13 and receive pick 73 as well.

8) Dolphins select RB Ezekiel Elliot

 

Me    17:21

I will trade you the Dolphins for the Titans

 

Me    17:21

Nevermind! Not sure Fins had to do that, Bucs were not taking a RB. And Browns have weird backs along with a weird offense anyway.

 

Brett    17:24

Tannebaum is known to trade up in drafts.  Word out of Miami and Omar Kelly is that they are smitten on Elliot. Fear the Bears and Giants taking him at 10, 11 respectively.

Me    17:24

9) Bucs lost voluntary muscle control, recover, clean up and select LB Myles Jack. Boom.

 

Brett    17:25

Uggghhhhh….love him

 

Me    17:26

Lavonte David – Jack – Kwon Alexander…<3 . Might be best LB group since the mid-90s Saints!

 

Brett    17:27

10) Giants select CB Vernon Hargreaves. They need so much DB help.

 

Me    17:30

I know nothing out Bear needs, but I will always bias to lineman.

11) Bears select DE Shaq Lawson

 

Brett    17:31

12) Saints select OLB Leonard Floyd Georgia. So good on a bad D at UGA. Saints need D. Make it happen.

 

Me    17:35

13) I feel very comfy with getting an extra pick with Cleveland. Brownies Quant nerds want Robert Nkemdiche here, but wary of off field issues. Take him any way. 4th best in draft at 13, they sprint faster than Josh Gordon to the desk.

 

Brett    17:37

Hmmmmmm. Wow. Lol

 

Brett    17:38

14) Raiders go D w ILB Reggie Ragland Alabama

 

Me    17:39

Feeling me tho? Brownies trade down twice, still get my 4 on big board

 

Me    17:41

I love Titans trading and value, they need everything.

15) Titans select OT Jack Conklin Sparta

 

Brett    17:41

Nice pick. Thought of him at 10! Yeah and they have a lot of picks left!!

 

Brett    17:43

16)…a lot of talent left…Lions select OLB Darron Lee  Buckeyes

 

Me    17:49

Falcons D is bad, but they fail at protecting Matty Ice.

17) OT Taylor Decker tOSU

 

Brett    17:51

18) Colts take DT Sheldon Rankins Louisville because the D is among the worst in NFL.

 

Me    17:53

Sweet at 18 B-)

 

Me    17:56

Bills Coach Rex knows how to party, needs pass rush.

19) DE Noah Spence EKU through tOSU

 

Brett    17:56

Todd Bowles says F you Rex…

 

Me    17:57

Get in line, says Rex

 

Brett    17:57

Lol! Was gonna take Spence…

 

Brett    17:58

Screw it..20) Jets select TE Hunter Henry Arkansas

 

Me    17:59

Wow. He is best TE, and Jets usually blow it, so…

 

Me    18:00

Skins need real WR to complement elite TE Jordan Reed…

21) Redskins select WR Laquon Treadwell Ole Miss

 

Brett    18:02

Speaking of complements..

22) Texans take WR William Fuller ND

 

Me    18:02

He fits better with Hopkins. Those cats may look Osweiler look good.

 

Me    18:03

So 23) Vikings grab WR Josh Doctson TCU who gets to keep his purple gear. Doctson is Dez like, not as fast

 

Brett    18:03

Agreed and agreed

 

Brett    18:05

You effin did it again! 24) Bengals select WR Corey Coleman Baylor

 

Me    18:06

Gotta be record wr run

 

Brett    18:07

Yep. I noticed. I wanted Doctson for the Bengals, but still like Coleman opposite AJ Green to fill in all the free agency losses.

 

Me    18:08

Steelers D may have been worst vs pass.

25) CB MacKenzie Alexander Clemson

 

Brett    18:09

Might be a hair early..26) Seahawks select OL Cody Whitehair. It’s a big need

 

Me    18:11

So I will pick “my guy” for the first time today…

Best fit for remaining r1…

27) Packers select DT Leonard Butler LA Tech. I watched a lot of Tech (Dixon and Driskell), this kid was damn near unstoppable

 

Brett    18:12

Yeah. Looking at him for KC..

28) Chiefs select DT Jarran Reed from “Let down Alabama”

 

Me    18:12

Did u do the “hair early” on purpose at 26?

 

Brett    18:13

Yep

 

Me    18:14

Cards have few needs, right? So BPA is 29) Cardinals select Clemson DE Kevin Dodd. U get a fun one now

 

Brett    18:14

Nice upside on Dodd…

 

Brett    18:15

Bye bye Norman…30) Panthers – hello CB William Jackson III Houston

 

Me    18:16

31) Broncos “pick and play” QB Paxton Lynch (/drops phone mic)

 

Brett    18:16

Lol..wow… Just wow

 

Me    18:17

Serious pick there, not entertainment purposes only. Broncos do that, or grab C Ryan kelly Alabama then wait til Saturday to pick Brandon Allen Arkansas

 

NFL Double Digit Dog #NFLDD: Two-fer of Jags, Bears at +14

Tom Brady faces the stout Jaguar defense with very high expectations.

Of course both teams have been horrible lately. Of course both are on the road against LAST YEAR’s Super Bowl teams.

But this is why they are priced as TWO TOUCHDOWN underdogs for NFL Week 3.

I encourage you to put a minimum bet on each #NFLDDD while the lines are still at 14, as +13.5 is much less attractive.

Consider these:

Jacksonville Jaguars defense is stout, they just showed some life in a win over Miami, and what Patriot CB can cover Allen Robinson? Also, New England Patriots possess a poor recent record as a home double-digit favorite (per Sportsbook.ag, lost last two and 11-15 ATS since 1992). To be fair, Jacksonville is a coin flip as a #NFLDDD both overall and on the road.

Chicago Bears are horrible and may be starting QB Jimmy Clausen, but the Seattle Seahawks are 0-2, O-Line has struggled, they have no idea how to use uber-TE Jimmy Graham and on defense Kam Chancellor is not coming through that door.

Jags +14 at NE, Bears +14 at SEA

STAY TUNED – no moneylines yet, but we could see +750 for the adventurous among us that got paid in Week Two with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers winning outright as an #NFLDDD.

NFL Double Digit Dog ALERT: TAMPA BAY +10 at New Orleans

NFL bottom-feeder after embarrassing home loss week one gets its top play maker back (maybe) on the road in week two? Sure, why not!

Mike Evans – heehhhh!

Mike Evans return would help this pick immensely, I am on it with a one unit bet but if Evans is active I would add one more unit.Look at how much the public is on the home team!

(UPDATE: Even with an ineffective Mike Evans, the Buccaneers not only covered BUT WON OUTRIGHT! The rest of the year, BlueHorseshoe will suggest 2:1 unit ration on the spread and the MoneyLine to get access to the leveraged returns with lesser risk)

Blue Horseshoe loves #NFLDDD, as do other bettors so beware for line movement to +9.5 which is much less desirable.

from VegasInsider.com

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (0910CT)

1:00 PM Game Time Record Line Betting Trend Teams Win-Loss Streak Open Current Spread Money O/U 263 Tampa Bay (0-1) (0-0 A) L-1 48.5 47 39% 21% 79% 264 New Orleans (0-1) (0-0 H) L-1 -10.5 -9.5 61% 79% 21%

NFL DDD Alerts: Jaguars +9.5 host Colts, Eagles +11.5 at Broncos

Longtime readers know I dig NFL double digit underdogs and really dig NFLDDD home dogs – here is one of each! All lines quoted at Sportsbook.ag (it means a lot if you would let me refer you there, but they make it a process – hit me on Twitter @vincemullins for details).

Let’s class the place up a bit with Anne Hathaway and no bikinis, eh?

 

The Jacksonville Jaguars have paid off more than not last couple years so I am stretching my rules to squeak them in this weekend. I am not bothering with the ML, but with the 10 and total set at 42 this should be ugly. But winnable.

Rationale after the jump.

NFL DDD Alert! NYJ +11 looks good

Thursday night game and we have a double digit underdog in the NFL!!

Denise Milani – the poster girl for the DDD Double Digit Dog. Phenomenal abs and attention to diet also, you may notice…

Get on the Jets +11!

Granted last year they were absolutely humiliated in the “butt fumble” game as a double digit dog #DDd, but these market inefficiencies do not pop up often.

NFL DDD alert! Jaguars as huge underdogs always worth a play

Given the National Football League’s parity, the elite competition and of course the herding ability of the public to flow money into big faves, this technical bet came to mind three years ago and is really the only bet I play in the NFL.

Jacksonville Jaguars roars! (Photo credit: Wikipedia)

DDD = Double Digit Dog for our context here.

I say technical because similar to financial security analysis there is no need to look at fundamentals like yardage trends, matchups or anything – just take the underdog with the big number, set it and forget it.

If you are uncomfortable with such a thin amount of research support, play a small bet but do play about 90% of these, and play everyone of them +14 or more. This is more about inefficiency of markets, less about yard per play imbalances and such. This is like shorting a hot stock, or buying an unloved one.

So for Week 10:

PLAY Jacksonville Jaguars +15 (!) at Houston Texans, Max three-unit bet

Yes, Jacksonville is horrific and Houston is elite – let us first assume

Gratuitous DDD profile of the elite female form of Catalina Cruz.

everyone knows this, yes? That is priced ito this line and then some! Houston has never been a home fave of 14 or more, and the Jags covered a monster spread earlier this year at Green Bay with a 15-24 loss as a 15-point dog.

If there is a reason for caution, Houston is 4-0 ATS L3Y as a DD fave, but earlier this season they did fail to cover a -9.5 at NY Jets. Ignore that. (Thanks to Sportsbook and Stat Fox for the data)

Be alert – Arizona Cardinals +9.5 at Atlanta Falcons floating out there, and the Cards went for a straight up upset last season as a monster dog to the Patriots. The Cards did just fail to cover a 10.5 against the Packers though. Stay disciplined and wait for that DDD!

NFL WEEK 4

We uncover the value

So here we are in Week 4 of the NFL season. After watching a few weeks, one might say things are starting to take shape. So giving the lines a one over from the favorite , a few games deserve a second look.

DENVER -10 @ K.C. (O/U 42)

Denver looks for real this year. Granted, they did get a few calls in their favor in the first few weeks, but still they look good !! Really good ! I am an Oakland fan, so to say the donkeys looks good hurts. But it is the truth.
Double digit spreads can sometimes be a little much, however, it’s the Chiefs. In a division , a long , long time ago, to play in Arrowhead was a death sentence. Now, it’s more like a vacation destination. The Raiders won in KC. Denvers’ high powered offense is among the top in the league. Cutler is playing better than most people thought he ever would.